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Iran is playing a smart game of brinkmanship, they are pushing as far into the edge as they can take this and then pulling back. - Tony Nunan Quotes

Iran is playing a smart game of brinkmanship, they are pushing as far into the edge as they can take this and then pulling back.

Though there seems to be a lot of crude around, the long-term view is bullish. The U.S. Northeast will get colder and people may be concerned with middle distillate supplies. - Tony Nunan Quotes

Though there seems to be a lot of crude around, the long-term view is bullish. The U.S. Northeast will get colder and people may be concerned with middle distillate supplies.

Though there seems to be a lot of crude around, the long-term view is bullish, ... The U.S. Northeast will get colder and people may be concerned with middle distillate supplies. - Tony Nunan Quotes

Though there seems to be a lot of crude around, the long-term view is bullish, ... The U.S. Northeast will get colder and people may be concerned with middle distillate supplies.

For now it's off the radar screen. - Tony Nunan Quotes

For now it's off the radar screen.

Radar

It has a very high volatility and, short-term, there are plenty of inventories. However, the big concerns are Iran and Nigeria. - Tony Nunan Quotes

It has a very high volatility and, short-term, there are plenty of inventories. However, the big concerns are Iran and Nigeria.

The geopolitical tensions are still there, but the market is getting desensitized to it. - Tony Nunan Quotes

The geopolitical tensions are still there, but the market is getting desensitized to it.

The market pauses here because everyone is very cautious about new data, - Tony Nunan Quotes

The market pauses here because everyone is very cautious about new data,

It's a crazy market. Prices look strong one week because of the draws (declines) in gasoline. If we get another big draw this week, the market will be even stronger. - Tony Nunan Quotes

It's a crazy market. Prices look strong one week because of the draws (declines) in gasoline. If we get another big draw this week, the market will be even stronger.

Bearish (data) is widely expected and the market has already factored it in. But if it should show a recovery in demand, for example in gasoline, the market may rebound. - Tony Nunan Quotes

Bearish (data) is widely expected and the market has already factored it in. But if it should show a recovery in demand, for example in gasoline, the market may rebound.

Iran continues to hold the fire under oil despite current market fundamentals, and my guess is this will start heating up again. - Tony Nunan Quotes

Iran continues to hold the fire under oil despite current market fundamentals, and my guess is this will start heating up again.

Fire

Demand is so high and capacity is so low, we can go from comfortable to uncomfortable inventories within a month. - Tony Nunan Quotes

Demand is so high and capacity is so low, we can go from comfortable to uncomfortable inventories within a month.

Even if there is a stock draw, unless it is substantially and unexpectedly high, I would not expect prices to go up above $60 as the near-term market is still heavily weighed down by high inventory levels and the warmer weather. - Tony Nunan Quotes

Even if there is a stock draw, unless it is substantially and unexpectedly high, I would not expect prices to go up above $60 as the near-term market is still heavily weighed down by high inventory levels and the warmer weather.

The scary thing is that the hurricane season is not over yet... so I don't see prices coming down. - Tony Nunan Quotes

The scary thing is that the hurricane season is not over yet... so I don't see prices coming down.

The short-term situation in the U.S. is not good. With the refinery turnaround season, products should be tight but crude imports are higher and there is warm weather. - Tony Nunan Quotes

The short-term situation in the U.S. is not good. With the refinery turnaround season, products should be tight but crude imports are higher and there is warm weather.

It's no secret that refineries are the problem. There wouldn't be a problem if there was any slack in the system. - Tony Nunan Quotes

It's no secret that refineries are the problem. There wouldn't be a problem if there was any slack in the system.

It is unknown how extensive the damage to the refineries is. - Tony Nunan Quotes

It is unknown how extensive the damage to the refineries is.

If we get draws in gasoline inventories, that could turn the market around. - Tony Nunan Quotes

If we get draws in gasoline inventories, that could turn the market around.

The market expects bearish inventories, with crude up by 1.5 million barrels, distillates down 1.7 million barrels and gasoline supplies unchanged. - Tony Nunan Quotes

The market expects bearish inventories, with crude up by 1.5 million barrels, distillates down 1.7 million barrels and gasoline supplies unchanged.

The market is not terribly bullish in the short term because crude inventories are still high. - Tony Nunan Quotes

The market is not terribly bullish in the short term because crude inventories are still high.

The market is a bit confused because the recent data showed a big build in gasoline inventory. But I think most people will realise that it'll probably be not until next week that we see real (inventory) numbers. - Tony Nunan Quotes

The market is a bit confused because the recent data showed a big build in gasoline inventory. But I think most people will realise that it'll probably be not until next week that we see real (inventory) numbers.

The Iranian situation is kind of dropping into the background. - Tony Nunan Quotes

The Iranian situation is kind of dropping into the background.

In the short and medium term, there's no crude oil problem because the U.S. government will release stocks and IEA will release stocks to cover that shortfall. - Tony Nunan Quotes

In the short and medium term, there's no crude oil problem because the U.S. government will release stocks and IEA will release stocks to cover that shortfall.

Overall big picture is the market is still strong, - Tony Nunan Quotes

Overall big picture is the market is still strong,

We have a two-sided market, which is fundamentally weak in the short-term due to inventories but in the long-term faces all this geopolitical risk. - Tony Nunan Quotes

We have a two-sided market, which is fundamentally weak in the short-term due to inventories but in the long-term faces all this geopolitical risk.

Traders are now more concerned about the psychological impact of the hurricanes that has seriously caught American consumers, cutting back on consumption. - Tony Nunan Quotes

Traders are now more concerned about the psychological impact of the hurricanes that has seriously caught American consumers, cutting back on consumption.

The market has gone up so much and so quickly. This is a technical correction. This is just profit-taking ahead of the weekly statistics. - Tony Nunan Quotes

The market has gone up so much and so quickly. This is a technical correction. This is just profit-taking ahead of the weekly statistics.

Last time, the market could handle uncertainty as there was a lot of slack but now because prices are so high, the market is not equipped to handle unplanned events. - Tony Nunan Quotes

Last time, the market could handle uncertainty as there was a lot of slack but now because prices are so high, the market is not equipped to handle unplanned events.

The market was only expecting an increase [in crude stocks] in the range of two million barrels but crude has been rising for the past five weeks. - Tony Nunan Quotes

The market was only expecting an increase [in crude stocks] in the range of two million barrels but crude has been rising for the past five weeks.

Increasing concerns over supply shortages in the U.S because of the outages at refineries in the Gulf Coast and disruptions to refinery operations in France are giving support to the market. - Tony Nunan Quotes

Increasing concerns over supply shortages in the U.S because of the outages at refineries in the Gulf Coast and disruptions to refinery operations in France are giving support to the market.

Increasing concerns over supply shortages in the U.S because of the outages at refineries in the Gulf Coast and disruptions to refinery operations in France are giving support to the market, - Tony Nunan Quotes

Increasing concerns over supply shortages in the U.S because of the outages at refineries in the Gulf Coast and disruptions to refinery operations in France are giving support to the market,

There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks. - Tony Nunan Quotes

There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks.

If statistics show any signs of bullishness, prices will go higher. Technically, the market wants to test $65 a barrel. - Tony Nunan Quotes

If statistics show any signs of bullishness, prices will go higher. Technically, the market wants to test $65 a barrel.

This market is ready to blow. [Petrol] and geopolitical risks are driving the market and they both do not have easy solutions. - Tony Nunan Quotes

This market is ready to blow. [Petrol] and geopolitical risks are driving the market and they both do not have easy solutions.

There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks. The big problem is that going into the driving season, Nigerian refined crude is important for the US market, and if there are further disruptions, we are going to get a pop in crude prices. - Tony Nunan Quotes

There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks. The big problem is that going into the driving season, Nigerian refined crude is important for the US market, and if there are further disruptions, we are going to get a pop in crude prices.

It's just profit-taking, the market needed to correct. - Tony Nunan Quotes

It's just profit-taking, the market needed to correct.

Iran's nuclear plans will continue to pose a threat. It may shun foreign investment in its oil facilities. - Tony Nunan Quotes

Iran's nuclear plans will continue to pose a threat. It may shun foreign investment in its oil facilities.

Iran

The market is highly sensitized to headlines that could affect supply. Anxiety over supplies and possible disruptions are the key drivers of price now. It's hard to be bearish in a market like this. Levels came off the record high mainly due to profit-taking because prices went up too quickly. But $65-$70 seems a very distinct possibility as we approach winter. - Tony Nunan Quotes

The market is highly sensitized to headlines that could affect supply. Anxiety over supplies and possible disruptions are the key drivers of price now. It's hard to be bearish in a market like this. Levels came off the record high mainly due to profit-taking because prices went up too quickly. But $65-$70 seems a very distinct possibility as we approach winter.

Anxiety Headlines

The situation is unclear because output is still down in the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. refineries are having problems. - Tony Nunan Quotes

The situation is unclear because output is still down in the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. refineries are having problems.

The whole thing about Katrina ends up as a psychological shock. U.S. consumers back off after gasoline prices sky-rocketed. - Tony Nunan Quotes

The whole thing about Katrina ends up as a psychological shock. U.S. consumers back off after gasoline prices sky-rocketed.

It will be more of a political move on the part of OPEC to calm high oil prices. - Tony Nunan Quotes

It will be more of a political move on the part of OPEC to calm high oil prices.

Opec

(Increasing production) will be more of a political move on the part of OPEC to calm high oil prices. - Tony Nunan Quotes

(Increasing production) will be more of a political move on the part of OPEC to calm high oil prices.

Opec

The products problems cannot be solved. One way to solve the products (supply) problem is imports from Europe or Asia. - Tony Nunan Quotes

The products problems cannot be solved. One way to solve the products (supply) problem is imports from Europe or Asia.

I don't think the market is weak, - Tony Nunan Quotes

I don't think the market is weak,

Only Saudi Arabia has surplus capacity, and if its oil flow should be disrupted, it could bring a hopeless situation. - Tony Nunan Quotes

Only Saudi Arabia has surplus capacity, and if its oil flow should be disrupted, it could bring a hopeless situation.

The market has been sold off after the Hurricane headed for Florida instead of the Gulf Coast. So oil production is not affected. - Tony Nunan Quotes

The market has been sold off after the Hurricane headed for Florida instead of the Gulf Coast. So oil production is not affected.

Gulf Coast Hurricane

If you look at statistics every week, there's a drop in demand year-on-year. People are focusing on that. - Tony Nunan Quotes

If you look at statistics every week, there's a drop in demand year-on-year. People are focusing on that.

That's the big question on everybody's mind, how much this (high prices) affected the demand. - Tony Nunan Quotes

That's the big question on everybody's mind, how much this (high prices) affected the demand.

Statistics have shown demand was reduced on a year-on-year basis in September and October. Traders are concerned that they may end up seeing slower demand again in November. - Tony Nunan Quotes

Statistics have shown demand was reduced on a year-on-year basis in September and October. Traders are concerned that they may end up seeing slower demand again in November.

Statistics have shown demand was reduced on a year-on-year basis in September and October. Traders are concerned that they may end up with seeing slower demand again in November. - Tony Nunan Quotes

Statistics have shown demand was reduced on a year-on-year basis in September and October. Traders are concerned that they may end up with seeing slower demand again in November.

Most of the worst-case scenario has been built in to the price already, so we will get a week of consolidation until the real extent of the damage is known. - Tony Nunan Quotes

Most of the worst-case scenario has been built in to the price already, so we will get a week of consolidation until the real extent of the damage is known.

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